Well?

The biggest political news item at the start of the week was that Barack Obama has seemingly reversed his position that offshore oil drilling. The candidate had previously stated that offshore drilling was an avenue he was unwilling to pursue, and some people, understandably, are accusing him of selling out.

So did he?

Say it aint so, O’

I’ve been trying to prepare a thoughtful, thorough analysis of this all week, but I was hung up on these points for days:

Hasn’t it been shown over and over again that nothing about oil production is really safe?

Isn’t it clear that the oil industry is broken and we need to move forward with alternative energy?

Haven’t we seen that reversals like this sink Presidential candidates, particularly when it offends their base?

I think so. So why would Obama pander to an attack from John McCain?

Why would he do it? 

Someone on the Obama campaign must be really, really afraid of gas prices, and that they’re high enough to sink his campaign. 

With McCain saying things like 

 ”Anybody who says that we can achieve energy independence without using and increasing these existing energy resources either doesn’t have the experience to understand the challenge that we face or isn’t giving the American people some straight talk”

That’s fine - gas prices have emerged as as the most important issue in this campaign, even as prices slowly start to back down. No one is going to forget the impact $4 dollar gas had on their budget (except for those of us in California, who said “Um…yeah?”) and I realize that Obama has to account for that. Obama’s energy adviser says the candidate ”recognizes that Americans are suffering.” He has to promise something, anything, that will give Americans relief at the pump. 

Still, did it have to be offshore drilling? Why not an offshore wind power or other green power? Why not embrace the Hilton Compromise? 

To answer that, we have to take a look at what he actually promised:

What he actually said

Obama’s actual statement last weekend about opening up the Florida coast for drilling was:

“If, in order to get that passed, we have to compromise in terms of a careful, well thought-out drilling strategy that was carefully circumscribed to avoid significant environmental damage - I don’t want to be so rigid that we can’t get something done”

If - the big word in this statement has to be “if.” 

Indeed, all of Obama’s statements so far have maintained that offshore drilling is not really the answer. In the statement where he officially announced his change of mind on Monday, he reiterated

I offer no suggestion it will make a long-term impact on the fact that demand worldwide is going up while supply is flatlined

He’s also said nothing so far about pushing Congress to lift the ban this August or put forth any concrete plans about how he might push for offshore drilling.

All he’s said so far is the he would be open to it.

Will he go through with it?

Maybe.

All Obama has done so far is show that he’ll be open-minded, the trait which he has made the Hallmark of his campaign.

That means he can say he’d consider offshore drilling, and mean it, without ever going through with it. 

Obama qualified each statement he’s made about offshore drilling with “if”s:

• If it can be done safely
• If it’s environmentally sound
• If it will give us lower gas prices

Opponents of offshore drilling have been screaming all summer “It can’t be done safely! It’s not environmentally sound! It won’t even lower gas prices!” and it won’t. Given those facts, Obama can promise to consider offshore drilling, then turn around and tell the nation it just won’t work. 

He gets to defuse McCain’s claim that Obama doesn’t care about gas prices while those prices steadily decline into the fall. 

So has Obama sold-out? 

Not yet. But he might be considering it. 

 

Check out What You Can Do to Stop Offshore Drilling to make sure that he doesn’t. 

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photo by BohPhoto

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